Blackstone, a large alternative asset manager with an extensive track record in private equity and real estate, has had a big run over the last 15 months. Blackstone is publicly traded in the United States under the ticker BX, and it also manages BREIT, a non-listed real estate investment trust. Between these two entities, Blackstone has made four acquisitions sized over $5 billion each in the U.S. real estate market since the beginning of 2021.

BX stock has significantly outperformed its peer group. Since December 31, 2019, BX has generated a total return of +78%, compared to a loss of -3% for the peer group (measured by the Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETF under the ticker PSP).

The Energy Information Agency (or EIA), a branch of the U.S. Department of Energy, “collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.” (Link to EIA website here).

While EIA forecasts are “independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government”, they have not always been accurate in recent years, especially when it comes to predicting the pace of the decline of the nation’s domestic coal industry. Each year since the mid-2010s, EIA coal production forecasts have proven far too bullish. Here, we illustrate this phenomenon by showing the actual decline in production volumes (in black) compared to the forecasted production trajectory in each respective year (in blue/green, to the right). We credit Engine No. 1 for their work in highlighting this trend in EIA data.

Data from the recent Steinway S-1 IPO filing sheds light on the relative scale of the piano market in China compared to the United States. A growing population of high net worth individuals underpins Steinway’s ambitions for growth in this market.

The mushroom industry is Ireland’s largest food-growing sector, accounting for over 100 million euros in revenue every year. Around 85% of the mushrooms produced (~70k tonnes) are exported to the United Kingdom.

After posting losses in the early quarters of the pandemic, rental car businesses are more than making up for it. Both Hertz and Avis Budget have seen profitability skyrocket above pre-COVID levels, when measured on an LTM EBITDA per vehicle basis. Downsized fleets and a rapidly recovering economy have driven the rebound. After reaching pre-COVID levels of around ~$1,000 in annual cash flow per vehicle, both companies are now generating north of $4,000 per vehicle in cash flow over the last 12 months.

Boeing commercial airplane delivery rates collapsed following the 737 MAX crash in Ethiopia in early 2019. The pandemic-driven production halt in 2020 only exacerbated Boeing’s production rate troubles. Quarterly deliveries have increased every quarter since 2Q20, but are still only at around half of the levels seen in 2017-2018.

While Chipotle’s store count growth varies from quarter to quarter, on average, total stores grows by +0% to +3% each quarter. Over the last five years, only one quarter (3Q18) saw negative store count growth. We’ll have more analysis on trends in Chipotle’s business coming soon.

We’ve written before about how the pandemic created a divergence in consumer behavior in the United States (see our Wal-Mart vs Dollar General comp store sales analysis for more). Here, we take a look at airline yields (in dollars per revenue passenger mile) and note a similar divergence. While most airlines posted a drop in pricing during the pandemic, two low-cost carriers (Allegiant and Frontier) actually saw upticks in yield instead. Data from the MIT Airline Data Project.

Real estate prices and rig counts exhibit similar patterns when looking through historical data in the Permian basin in Texas. We graphed Baker Hughes rig count data against Zillow home price data in Midland County to show this relationship.

Beginning in mid-2020, lower-priced Dollar General began to significantly outperform its retail competitor Wal-Mart. We analyzed quarterly comp store sales data through the pandemic here.