Gasoline prices are up across the United States. According to GasBuddy, the average price for gasoline is now $4.11 per gallon at stations in the U.S.
In this analysis, we take a look at weekly gas prices (in both California and Florida, measured by data from the EIA) and compare them to historical averages for over the last five years.
After falling below seasonally-typical prices in early 2020 during the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (see the red shaded portion of the graph above), prices have rallied back in an unrelenting way. In California, gas now costs an average of $5.51 per gallon, about $2.10 higher than normal for late April. In Florida, where the situation is (slightly) better, the price is $4.05 per gallon, which is around $1.58 higher than normal for the season.
Below, we show the seasonal premium (the same graph as above, just extended back to the beginning of 2013) to illustrate just how bad things have gotten. After trending below normal in the 2015-2017 oil price crash, gas prices are now the highest they’ve been (relative to the last five years) in almost ten years.
Our analysis at the top of the page also looks at total vehicle mileage in the U.S. (using data from FRED), illustrated by the road-colored line at the bottom of the chart that corresponds to the right-hand axis. Vehicle mileage is a good indicator of near-term demand for gasoline, and recovering travel volumes may be helping drive the gas market tightness (so-called demand-led inflation).
After bottoming out in the middle of the pandemic, mileage is gradually starting to recover, and is approaching pre-COVID levels.